Analysis: Governor’s race

Early voting began Friday in the primary race to determine the next governor of Tennessee. It is estimated that as much as 60 percent of voters will cast a ballot by the time that period ends on July 31.

That said, all four major campaigns are feverishly urging their supporters to the polls. Come Aug. 5, only two will be left standing, and we already know who one of them will be.

Still, many questions have not been answered. For instance, will we see a candidate “crater” in this race as we saw in the 2006 GOP primary for the U.S. Senate?

In that race, former Congressmen Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant faced the eventual winner, former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. Heading into the early voting season, Hilleary looked to be running a strong second to Corker — before inexplicably losing all steam. Droves of his voters wound up in Bryant’s camp. The exodus was so large and swift that it has led to speculation that, had Hilleary not been in the race all along, Bryant would have bested Corker.

Hilleary had run statewide four years prior in an unsuccessful bid for governor and, thus, carried some name recognition. But neither he nor Bryant were as well-funded as Corker, which leads to strong comparisons with this year’s GOP primary.

Playing the role of Corker is Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam. Like Corker, he is considered the front-runner, has considerable personal wealth, and is accused by his primary opponents of trying to “buy” the election. Filling in for Bryant and Hilleary this time are Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey and U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp.

We’re still not sure who, Ramsey or Wamp, will fill the Hilleary role and see his support evaporate in the waning days, but it is likely to happen. Also curious is whether one of those two can pull enough undecided voters to knock off Haslam, who is trending as the mainstream candidate.

While we won’t know the answer to that until Aug. 5, remember this: Voters more often than not seem to act with a pack mentality.

People like a winner.

Mike McWherter

As the son of popular former Gov. Ned McWherter, Democratic candidate and Jackson businessman Mike McWherter already has his party’s nomination.

McWherter won his primary through attrition, and that has been both a blessing and a curse.

It has given him and his team more time to prepare to battle the GOP nominee. They have been able to consolidate their operation and the money their former primary opponents would have raised under one roof. They have had more time to prepare, research and save money.

The curse is that this organization is not battle-tested. While the leaders of the campaign have been through multiple elections, most of their ground troops have not and aren’t as prepared for the rigors of what amounts to a three-month sprint.

Their candidate isn’t as prepared either. In last week’s final debate before the primary, McWherter was the least-polished of the candidates and was largely ignored by his opponents and the media. Some of this is understandable since he has gotten a free pass through the August primary, but the lack of polish did not inspire confidence, and that will require fast fixing if he wants to win in November.

The one message we are getting from McWherter is that he is running for what could be considered current Gov. Phil Bredesen’s “third term.” Bredesen is barred from seeking re-election again, but given how many times McWherter drops his name, it’s obvious he is firmly grasping his coattails in the hopes that it will carry him to victory.

Ron Ramsey

Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey was the last Republican to enter the governor’s race but in some ways was probably the first on the radar, after he defeated his entrenched predecessor, the late John Wilder, for the state’s second-highest post in 2007.

That feat alone was enough to garner him support from corners of the state that probably hadn’t heard of him before. In this election, he is relying most on the support of Gun Owners of America and more than a dozen tea party organizations who have endorsed his candidacy.

On the fundraising side, because state law bars sitting members of the legislature from raising money for election while the legislature is in session and he entered the race much later than his two rivals, he has had 10 fewer months than his rivals to raise money.

Still, in the all-important final stretch, he has about $68,000 more cash on hand than Wamp, which could have an impact in the final media buys to sway voters.

In many respects, Ramsey’s bid seems more designed for the future. Should he lose the primary, in all likelihood he will remain the lieutenant governor next year. The only way that won’t happen is if Republicans lose the state Senate, or his colleagues in the GOP turn on him. Neither is likely.

And if he loses, the new governor will have to work with Ramsey, which means it will be in the victor’s best interest to get along. In the past few months, Ramsey has elevated his relevance in the state’s political consciousness with his run, and he has shown that he will have to be at the very least a partner and at the worst a rival.

Ramsey hasn’t flexed as much muscle as he could have against Bredesen primarily because of the timing of his own election to the state’s No. 2 post and the need to consolidate his own power, which is now considerable.

It is doubtful that Ramsey has enough gas in the tank to pull off a win in August, but expect him to do well in Middle and West Tennessee, and to run respectably in his home base of East Tennessee.

Zach Wamp

U.S. Rep. Zach Wamp began his political career as the “other guy” elected in the 1994 Republican congressional landslide. His classmates that year were Bryant and Hilleary, both of whom seemed to put their markers down for a statewide run earlier than Wamp.

Since that time, he has billed himself as a regional mayor for his congressional district and did better at the job than many expected. But he has relied heavily on congressional earmarks and some questionable associations, detailed previously by The City Paper, to advance his political career.

Energetic and probably the best public speaker of the lot running for governor, Wamp has ruffled some feathers along the way with his temper and statements that he should “quarterback” the state legislature if elected. Anyone who has spent any time in the legislature knows that such an assertion is the quickest way to get in trouble with the General Assembly, especially one led by Ramsey.

Weighing heavily in Wamp’s favor this election are his high-profile endorsements: radio personality Dave Ramsey and musicians such as John Rich, Michael W. Smith and Ricky Skaggs. Working against him in the minds of the voters are ugly memories of the last two Tennessee governors who came straight from congressional stints: Don Sundquist and Ray Blanton.

Wamp has a lot of fight in him and won’t go down without exhausting all he has, whether it’s from his campaign war chest or the help of independent expenditures by outside organizations.

At the end of the primary, Wamp will have most likely run the most strongly in his home base of East Tennessee, especially in the counties in his congressional district.

Bill Haslam

Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam has been the front-runner for the GOP nomination from the start, but not without some lumps along the way.

He has been hit hardest for joining an organization led by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg against guns, then quitting because he said the group “changed over time.”

Last week, he was hit by an attack ad from an Iowa-based group that accused him and his family’s company, Pilot Oil, of price gouging.

While far and away having raised the most money of any candidate, he has also outspent them by a margin of almost 5 to 1. On top of that, in the past few weeks, he put $400,000 of his own money into the race.

The strategy the Haslam campaign seems to be employing right now is simply to run out the clock in the primary and head to the general election. They seem to want to win the primary without biting too hard into their opponents, mainly so they don’t alienate other Republicans currently in other camps.

In this game of “keep away,” the Knoxville mayor will be walking the fine line of defending against increased and higher-profile attacks on their campaign while trying not to lash out at the group or individual who fired the shot.

Expect Haslam to do well in all three Grand Divisions of the state.