News Analysis: Election Night for Dummies

Tomorrow night, most every television channel you turn to will be broadcasting the 2008 presidential election results. Your only hope of escape is to lock yourself in your kid’s room and watch Hannah Montana re-runs on Disney with the little ones.

Face it folks, even if you hate politics that option is more painful.

To get you through the night, and to give those who like election nights an added sense of enjoyment, here are some things that you should watch for Tuesday.

Heck, we’ll even ratchet this thing up a bit and channel our inner “Jimmy the Greek” and throw in some odds for races around the country.

The Bradley Effect and polling

A phrase you are going to hear a lot early in the evening, and depending on how the presidential vote goes you could hear a lot through the night, is the “Bradley Effect.”

What the talking heads are referring to is the 1982 California gubernatorial contest where long time Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, led most every poll going into the election but lost to George Deukmejian, the white attorney general of the state.

The explanation given by many at the time is that white voters concealed their true voting intentions so as not to appear racist. Debate it all you want, but that’s what the people on television will be talking about when they use the term.

How the polls shake out compared to reality will be interesting no matter what. Despite what you will hear tomorrow, telephone polling is an inexact science that is especially dangerous this cycle.

Pollsters are using election history to determine how they generate their numbers, coupled with analysis of voter registration activity and their own “secret formulas.” They may talk to 1,000 people but only use 650 of them in their data in order to satisfy demographic quotas they set for themselves.

What will be interesting to see tomorrow is how well pollsters have done their jobs. Typically, they put little weight on newly registered voters but that would be a mistake this year. Davidson County alone has over 49,000 newly registered voters.

Another danger in polling is the youth vote and the African-American vote.

Again, the youth vote is generally not weighted heavily in polling and it is difficult to gauge because so many of the 18-25 age demographic use a cell phone that isn’t listed as opposed to a land line as their primary means of communication. Pollsters do not have access to the cell phone numbers when polling.

Polling the African-American community can be difficult because historically African-American voters as a group have been reluctant to participate in independent polling. While that may sound like a rash generalization, it is true. A hypothesis often given as to the reason is that voter intimidation tactics inflicted on the community during the Civil Rights Era and the 1970’s have caused older African-Americans to hold their cards closer to the vest.

You also have to factor in the same reasons for the youth vote with younger African-Americans, many operate primarily off of cell phones which aren’t reached by pollsters.

Talking heads and other forms of nausea

The most difficult thing to stomach on election night will be the “talking heads.” As much as we wish were talking about the band and David Byrne, we are talking about the phalanx of “experts” that will be crowding your television.

Most viewers during Election Night coverage complain about so-called “analysis” of the “political experts” on CNN, FOX, NBC, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, et al. We’re not talking about the local news coverage of the elections — it is the national broadcasts that are nauseating.

Perhaps none is more painful than the CNN set-up of having what looks like the Mormon Tabernacle Choir on set, “analyzing” the returns.

If they covered the returns with the energy and style of ESPN’s “GameDay,” it would be great. Instead we are treated with a broadcast that has all the manufactured excitement of a 1980’s sitcom starring Bob Saget.

Seriously, use some common sense. Polls close on the East Coast starting at 6 p.m. our time, some key states like Ohio close at 6:30, another round including Tennessee at 7, North Carolina and Arkansas at 7:30, and then the rest of the big states at 8 and 9 p.m. So tune in for a few minutes around those poll closing times to get some idea of what is going on and avoid at least 20 minutes of babble each half-hour.

Place your bets

Like we said before, election night would be more fun for people and probably generate more interest if ESPN were in charge of covering the races. Since they aren’t yet, here are some races that political geeks will be watching and you can have a friendly wager with your friends over, as long you don’t bet money. That would be illegal.

Right now, the on-line betting sites are hot with presidential odds. You can’t bet on politics at a casino in Vegas so this action is off-shore.

Sen. Barack Obama is generally the “safe bet” at those on-line casinos but like all betting lines those odds will tighten as we get closer to kick-off.

Since you are probably sick of hearing about the presidential race, why not take a look at the races for U.S. Senate or U.S. House taking place? Democrats are trying to get to 60 members in the U.S. Senate so they can block Republican filibusters. While they sweat the returns, why not take a shot at these with your spouse or friends and see who gets to rake the yard.

North Carolina has a close election battle with incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole fighting for her political life against Democrat Kay Hagan. What should have been a safe GOP seat has now become a toss-up race.

Alaska might get a Democratic U.S. Senator, especially after Republican incumbent Ted Stevens was convicted recently on federal corruption charges. Stevens is still on the ballot and hasn’t resigned, but his resignation may be forced if Democrat Mark Begich can carry it over the top.

Minnesota has an interesting battle going on with Republican incumbent Norm Coleman trying to fend off former Saturday Night Live writer, comedian and radio host Al Franken. The state that elected former wrestler Jesse Ventura as governor is too close to call for the senate.

While you will have to watch a little more closely to get the results, some races for the U.S. House of Representatives are interesting as well.

Connecticut has the only Republican incumbent in the U.S. House for all of New England, Chris Shays, and he is hanging on by a thread. All of his former GOP colleagues from New England lost in 2006. Shays is facing Democrat Jim Himes.

Florida has a race with a Nashville connection, that of Democrat Tim Mahoney versus Republican Tom Rooney. Mahoney, who formerly was represented by Nashville-based political consulting firm Fletcher, Rowely, Chao & Riddle, recently admitted to being a serial adulterer and paid hush money to a mistress.

Minnesota freshman Republican Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann found that the quickest way to help your opponent raise money is to go on national television and say that there needs to be a probe of Congress to root out “anti-Americans.” That little remark was a fundraising boon for Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. Could be a fun one to watch.

Finally, let’s finish off with Ohio Republican Congresswoman Jean Schmidt versus Democrat Victoria Wulsin.

Schmidt is famous for famously attacking Democratic colleague John Murtha with the phrase “Cowards cut and run” a few years back. Her race looks to be pretty tight in what should have been a safe Republican district.

Still, no matter whom you are for, try to enjoy election night. While it is not your duty, it is your right.