Tightrope 2008: GOP, Dems look to regain power

Jimmy Naifeh and Ron Ramsey

As a national race for the White House unfolds this fall, Tennessee Democrats and Republicans will be sparring for control of a closely divided state Legislature, and a handful of races will determine that outcome.

Narrow margins characterize each party’s control of one house of the Tennessee General Assembly.

In the 99-member House, Democrats have a 53-46 majority versus Republicans, an advantage they’ve enjoyed since the 2004 elections. The GOP needs to win four seats to capture their first majority in the House since Reconstruction.

In the 33-member Senate, Republicans and Democrats each have 16 members with one Independent, but the GOP has operational control of the chamber because of Senate Speaker and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey (R-Blountville). Either party could gain a clear majority this election cycle.

Despite 16 Senate seats on the ballot this fall and all 99 House seats, there will likely only be about 10 to 20 that could conceivably change from Republican to Democrat or vice versa.

Ed Cromer, the editor of the non-partisan political newsletter Tennessee Journal, said Republicans aren’t likely to pick up four seats in the House to gain a majority while Democrats in the Senate are on the defensive because of the seats in play in 2008.

“It’s advantage Democrats in the House, advantage Republicans in the Senate,” Cromer said. “But it’s close enough in both houses that either party could come out ahead.”

Both parties see the distant — and important — political horizon. Whoever has the majority in the House or Senate controls that body’s redistricting pen when the district lines are redrawn following the 2010 elections.

The Davidson Doughnut

To regain control of the Senate, Democrats will be largely focusing on the so-called doughnut counties ringing Davidson County.

In 2004, now Sens. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) and Jim Tracy (R-Shelbyville) defeated Democratic incumbents, winning office by using their campaigns plus the benefit of heavy Republican turnout for re-electing President George W. Bush.

For example, Bush won Black’s district in 2004 by 25,000 votes, according to Mark Brown, the spokesman for the Senate Democratic Caucus. Black won the election by 2,500 votes.

Four years later, Democrats hope to use some deep anti-Bush feelings to defeat Black and Tracy and put those seats back into Democratic hands.

“There’s a general anti-Republican mood out there,” Brown said. “The Republican brand is damaged.”

In November, Black will likely face Jim Hawkins, an attorney. The winner of a contested Democratic primary election between Dee Butler, a teacher, and Jean Anne Rogers, an optometrist, will run against Tracy.

Bill Hobbs, a spokesman for the Tennessee Republican Party, said Democrats can look at different polling and voter turnout numbers but Black and Tracy are “going to do just fine.”

“We feel confident we’re going to expand our numbers in the Senate,” Hobbs said.

A Few Grudge Matches

Democrats may also want to knock off one of their own. Sen. Rosalind Kurita (D-Clarksville) cast a pivotal vote in 2007 to elect Ramsey Senate speaker. She increasingly voted with the GOP toward the end of this year’s legislative session. Kurita is facing primary opposition from Tim Barnes, a Clarksville attorney.

On the Republican side, the GOP will try to gain a firmer hold on the Senate and will have opportunities to target a pair of open Democratic seats and challenge a former Republican turned Independent.

Democratic Sens. Tommy Kilby of Wartburg and John Wilder of Mason will not be seeking re-election. Wilder has served 44 years in the Senate, including 36 as Senate speaker, representing his rural, West Tennessee, cotton country district.

For Wilder’s seat, former Bredesen administration commissioner and ex-lobbyist Randy Camp is the only Democrat running, facing one of three Republicans seeking their party’s nomination.

For Kilby’s Cumberland Plateau swing district, Democrat Becky Ruppe, Morgan County’s executive, will face Republican Ken Yager, Roane County’s executive.

Farther east, Republicans will have a chance to get back at one of their own who left the flock. Sen. Mike Williams, an Independent from Maynardville, quit the Republican Party in 2007.

Since then, Republican senators, led by Ramsey, have been more openly discussing defeating Williams and his seat is their No. 1 target.

Williams will be facing opposition from Republican Mike Faulk.

In addition, former Sen. Jerry Cooper’s old Senate district will be one to watch. Cooper resigned earlier this year and Sen. Steve Roller, a Democrat, temporarily replaced him. Roller and two fellow Democrats will be competing for the party’s nod, earning the right to face one of three Republicans seeking the nomination.

Fair Game

Since the early 1970s, Republicans have been trying to regain control of the state House.

This year, the GOP needs a net four-seat gain for a majority. To get there, they’ll mainly be focusing on winning three open seats created by the retirement of veteran Democratic lawmakers Frank Buck (D-Dowelltown), John Hood (D-Murfreesboro) and Randy Rinks (D-Savannah), and regaining two Democrat-held seats Republicans feel are rightly theirs in the mountain country of East Tennessee.

Robin Smith, the chairwoman of the Tennessee Republican Party, said the anti-Republican feeling nationally has the state party’s attention.

“The one thing that has been just a commitment of mine is that our party will not be branded along the same lines of the national party, just simply because we haven’t lost our message,” Smith said. “We’re still very conservative.”

On the other side of the aisle, Republican seats that could swing Democratic include one they might not have been originally targeting.

Rep. Tom Dubois (R-Columbia) has taken fire for underage teens that say they attended a Mule Day party of his where alcohol was served. Those teens were cited for underage consumption, but Dubois says they weren’t served at his party.

Tennessee Democratic Party Chairman Gray Sasser said incidents such as Dubois’ Mule Day party are “very fair game for discussion.”

“One of the things we’re going to do is highlight inconsistencies between somebody’s personal actions and what’s going on at their household with what they’re saying in the state Legislature and what they’re telling their constituents,” Sasser said.

Other current Republican-held seats the Democrats will be targeting include the open seat created by Rep. Chris Crider (R-Milan) foregoing running for re-election as well as Reps. Joey Hensley (R-Hohenwald), Phillip Johnson (R-Pegram) and Judd Matheny (R-Tullahoma).