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Where’s Barack? Obama conspicuously absent from Tennessee
Despite his two main rivals for the Democratic nomination heavily campaigning in Tennessee, Sen. Barack Obama’s conspicuous absence does not mean he is conceding the state, his local political director says.
“I don’t think anyone holds it against him,” said Bob Tuke, Obama’s Tennessee political director, about his candidate not visiting the state. “It’s just a matter of, if you’re here you get more ink and more attention and so you probably affect more potential voters that way.”
Tuke said the campaign is working on a Memphis visit for Obama, but nothing has been finalized.
Obama has not come to the Volunteer State in months and has recently scaled back his advertising efforts in Tennessee leading up to the state’s Feb. 5 primary while Clinton continues to air ads.
Tuke doesn’t give complete credence to the notion that Obama not visiting Tennessee has hurt him and said the Illinois Democrat is not conceding the race here.
All the same, a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday of 753 likely Democratic primary voters in Tennessee has Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) leading Obama 43 percent to 32 percent. Former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) lagged in third with 16 percent.
Both Clinton and Edwards have appeared in Tennessee recently, with Clinton trekking to Nashville and Memphis this weekend just days after former President Bill Clinton stumped at Fisk University last week. Edwards visited Nashville and Chattanooga Monday, the day the poll was taken.
In response to the poll, Tuke acknowledged that Clinton led Obama in Tennessee, but thought the margin of the Public Policy Polling survey was broader than in reality. He also thinks Edwards supporters will swing to Obama if they become convinced the former North Carolina senator won’t win.
After losses in New Hampshire and Nevada, Obama rebounded to win South Carolina resoundingly versus Clinton on the strength of overwhelming support from black voters.
John Geer, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, said he suspects the Clinton campaign saw a chance in Tennessee to win a southern state that does not have as large of a black population as other Feb. 5 states like Georgia and Alabama.
And Obama may let Clinton have it, Geer said.
“He’s going to cede this state as it turns out to Hillary on the grounds that he’s going to take the battle to other states where he has a chance of winning, with California being the big prize,” Geer said.
Dean Debnam, the president of Public Policy Polling, said Tennessee’s lack of a large black population is limiting his rise.
“The primary electorate in Tennessee is only about 25 percent black,” Debnam said in a statement. “Obama continues to perform well behind Clinton among white voters, and he’s going to have difficulty winning primaries in states without large African-American populations if that continues.”
In poll results from Tennessee, Obama beat Clinton among black voters, 60 percent to 20 percent. But Clinton countered by leading 50 percent to 22 percent with whites.
Each of the respective Clinton events in Nashville has come at historically black colleges — Fisk University for Bill; Tennessee State University for Hillary.
In addition, Hillary spoke at a predominantly black Baptist church in Memphis Sunday.
Gender-wise, Clinton led Obama 47 percent to 28 with women and won among men as well, 39 percent to 35 percent, according to the poll.
While Clinton led Tennessee on the Democratic side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who campaigned in Nashville Monday, led the Republican candidates.
The survey of 1,093 likely Republican primary voters has Huckabee ahead of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 30 percent to 26 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in third with 22 percent.
Fred Thompson, although still on the ballot in Tennessee, was not included in this latest poll. The former state senator withdrew from the race on Jan. 22.
Among Republican respondents, the economy and jobs ranked first as their most important issue with 28 percent. McCain won that category, garnering 37 percent of those marking the economy as their top issue.
Coming in a close second at 24 percent, however, were moral and family values, a category Huckabee dominated with 53 percent support from those who ranked social issues as their No. 1 concern.
That support among Evangelical-minded voters propelled Huckabee to win in the poll, Debnam said.
“The key to Mike Huckabee’s success in Tennessee compared to South Carolina is that more GOP voters in the state list moral and family values as a top concern when deciding who to vote for,” Debnam said.
Huckabee finished second to McCain in the Palmetto State.
The margin of error for the Democratic poll was plus or minus 3.6 percent and plus or minus 3 percent for the GOP.
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I think he has been instructed by Bill and Hillary to stay out.It's about time for Hillary's staff to send out an e-mail about Obama's drug use and his Muslim faith.
Obama,if nominated by the democrats gives the Republicans (assuming they nominate McCain) a chance at reclaiming the White House. I would have thought this impossible two months ago. South Carolina proved what this election is going to be about if Obama is nominated. Hillary may not be able to beat Obama. She darn sure can beat whomever the Republican nominee might be.
Oh here we go about Obama's "Muslim faith..."If lies are all the GOP has, they're in worse shape than I thought. No wonder Grandpa Fred packed it in.
Uh, morpheus, Hillary is a democrat.
Poor teddy kennedy. He endorses obama, and is accused of betrayal to women, and of being anti-feminist. And I'm guessing that if he endorsed hillary, he would have been called a racist. What is a philandering old drunk to do? Maybe he should have just shut up, or endorsed himself.
I like the shut up suggestion, JDG.I'm voting for Obama next Tuesday. Against the Hildabeast.And, as a protest vote against the weak Republican nominee(s).Again, as in 1976, the Republicans have to learn a lesson.
Hey Morph, if it's lies that concerns you, then you will need to check in with the Clintons. I believe they have control of that dept. And as for racism, I believe it is alive and well in the Democrat party. Al Sharpton said Obama wasn't black enough and Clinton's minions like MediaMatters will continue to destroy Obama in any way they have to.
Remember there are three candidates in the Dem primary. I'm voting for the one that isn't involved in the bickering and name-calling.Thought about voting for McCain as an anti-Huckster vote but I think the Fred factor will cloud the results on the R side anyway.
Why should Obama come to TN, he already is getting the white trash vote without being here (see Serr's post). :)
"...Obama conspicuously absent ..."They say that like it's baaaaaaaaad thing.....
I just read where Edwards is dropping out of the race today.
GD, your post obviously shows you to be a person of character and depth.And, Racist!(Oh, vchester, you're right about Democratic racism...and, proof exists, about Bill Clinton's)...
Silky Pony is dropping out? What will fundit do now?
Coming from you Serr, that's a compliment. Don't drag your knuckles too much today...lol
Titan, where did you read that? That would be surprising to me. I would think he would stay in the race at least until next Tuesday.By the way, I'm not a Hillary fan, but she will be the next President. After that Jeb Bush. After that, Chelsey Clinton. Afer that, I don't care. I will be dead.
I was in favor of both Hillary and Obama, but since this is becoming a black vs.. white and male vs.. female race instead of focusing on the issues, I've decided to not vote at all. I wish them both luck.
Bucky, it's true. Go to Yahoo news.
Yes, Yahoo News is where I saw it.
Joe, your notions are wrong & idiotic.“[R]eclaiming the White House”, Frank? The Republicans have illegitimately occupied the White House for Seven years already. If a Republican wins in November (that would be the first time since 1988), but it would simply continue, not reclaim.Although endorsements aren’t worth much, JDG, the endorsement of Ted Kennedy (one of the nation’s greatest senators) is certainly worth something to Barack Obama. Look! Even a frightened Republican tool like S8 will vote for him now! (You did read the remarks on yesterday’s page, right, S8?)What’s interesting about the Kennedys’ acts is how far the Clintons have fallen among their fellow Democrats. Kennedy has known the Clintons for thirty years. He’s known Obama for, maybe, four. John Kerry also endorsed Obama. Which of Hillary Clinton’s colleagues have endorsed her? There are some untold stories there.On the other side, it’s interesting that Mitt Romney (never a senator) has as many endorsements from senators as has Senator-for-Life John McCain. McCain may use this to beat the “maverick” drum, but it also signals an inability to work with colleagues. Working with colleagues is essential for the president.Vches., racism is still alive & well throughout America, but so is sexism. Both Obama & Clinton, however, are better candidates than that group of white-breaders the Republicans offer. Read what the candidates say & what they’ve done, and try to vote on substance, not sex or skin color.Diafante, I agree with S8 only reluctantly, but the term “white trash” is racist—not against Whites, but against Blacks. It implies that trash among Whites is rare enough to signal its color, but it wouldn’t be rare among those of other hue. Let’s not refer to people as trash. S8’s misogyny & his latent homosexuality show whenever he writes of either Clinton or John Edwards. Isn’t that enough?I am really sorry that Edwards is dropping out. (There's an article on washingtonpost.com.) He spoke up for working people & for the disadvantaged. His plans are more progressive than those of either Clinton or Obama. He struck fear into the hearts of the Republican establishment, and, with the nomination, he would’ve creamed any Republican.
Hillary is the one who wants to bring race and gender into it. She's been not too subtly doing her best to paint Obama as the black candidate. I also love how the news is now painting him that way despite his overwhelming win in lily white Iowa. What happened there?Hillary is a disgusting human being with no ethics, integrity, or character. And her policy stances are so similar to Obama that they really don't matter as much as character does.Obama is my first choice for POTUS, McCain is my second. And I really don't think Hillary could beat McCain. She's got way too much dirty laundry and making even more now during the primary.
Seer8d, The only racism I have seen was in South Carolina.
As I have said before, I'm not a diehard Republican or Democrat, but I don't see a Republican winning this election no matter who the candidates are.
Yeah, I just read that Edwards was dropping out. Makes no sense to me not to wait until next Tuesday. Shouldn't this help Hillary? Was a deal reached maybe. Those Clintons are quite "slick"!
Another reason I'm not wasting my time to stand in long lines to vote is because of the recent economic stimulus package. I'm single and make over $75K per year and not included to receive any of the money to stimulate the economy, but at the same time they are taking more money out of my pay to help the economy than someone who makes under $75K. In essence, despite who is in office, Democrat or Republican, I'm not benefiting from either one being in office, so screw this election. At this point, I really don't care who wins.
I don't know Titan. It is hard to imagine a majority of Americans voting for a black man named Barack Hussein Obama. If they do, the people of this country have advanced alot more than I've been giving them credit for.
Don't a majority of Americans still think like working joe or Id?
It is my understanding, everyone that files a tax return will get a check, NY1.I think it is an incredibly stupid idea, but what the hey, I could use the money.
Bucky, they may have advanced, thanks, in part, to how awful the years of Bush-Dick have been. Electing Barack Obama would be a great step forward for America.
I have to admit the dems are sitting pretty with the top three candidates, osoma, the hilldabeast and juan mccain.
I will vote for Obama.
Of course, if Obama's vice-president is a White guy, like Edwards (with a southern accent yet!) then Obama will really need a security staff.A Texan killed Kennedy to put a Texan in office. Nixon & the Bushes used the tactic of making their vice-presidents more frightening even than they, thus ensuring their own safety. Although it's richly deserved, who would put a bullet into Bush's empty head just to make Cheney the actual (instead of virtual) president? Notice that they never appear in the same place?
Bucky, I think it will be Hillary, and I hope it is, but that is just a gut feeling.
If Edwards is out, I think they split that vote. I will go with Obama. Or I'll revisit the idea of an anti-Huckster vote for McCain.MJB makes a good point, although Clinton picked someone who was his counterpart in many ways, not a Darth Vader like Cheney or a mental midget like Agnew and Quayle. I would expect both Dem candidates to pick a southern white male if they win, but in Hill's case my money is on Richardson.
The tax “rebate” is for single up to 75k a year, couples up to 150k a year and 300 bucks for each kid on your return. But, this has not passed yet, as it is being held up in the Senate. But, the only thing this will “stimulate” is our national debt and the investments by foreign entities.Edwards is out; bad for Obama, good for Hillary. At this point ANYBODY looks better than Bush, but that is not saying much, and we ALL had better pick very carefully, or we will not come out of the mess we are in.
revo, you certainly have that right regarding the "rebate." We'll be further indebted to China and then lots of folks who get the check with go buy products MADE in China from Walmart. *sigh*
Does that mean we “fund” ourselves or “f’k” ourseleves?
Maybe we should have a 23 percent national sales tax so we can give the money right back to the government. Of course the fairytale that businesses will lower prices 23 percent wouldn't happen (groceries are sold on about a 3 percent profit margin), so we won't be able to afford anything then. I will take me rebate and pay off debt. Who elects these loons anyway? I have heard more harebrained nonsense this year from both sides than ever before. And the pea-brained liar in the White House has things so screwed up I don't see any of the current crop of candidates fixing the mess.
Typical. When the facts are presented that disagree with liberal extremists, they offer nothing more than personal attacks back. Right out of the Clinton and Carville playbook.Personally I will not have a problem if Obama is elected president. But it is so sweet to watch the democrat racists show their closeted bigotry this primary season.By the way, MJB, are you being paid again this presidential election to post democrat talking points and attack opposition posts?
Fred Thompson = Governor Thompson
Super Teusday Feb 5 will be a time for a serious changing of the gears in the major parties. Likely there will be two individuals emerge in each party that are in a close race and above the rest of the PAC.This could be a time for hopefuls to indicate a "running mate
I don't see that happening, alex. IMO, Fred's career in politics has already peaked.
A.j i love the idea of Fred for for governor.He will beat the hell out of anything the dem's can put up.
Governor=hard work for small salaryThompson as governor? Don't think so.Thompson=little work for large salary
I just came back from early voting. It was PACKED! It's so good to see a decent showing.
Obama may pick Bredesen as his VP... If Hillary wins, the end of the world must be very near. I like some aspects of McCain, but I don't think he will do anything to keep out the immigrants. If he can't secure his state, I doubt he can control the entire border.
McCain is the democrat’s option for those that don’t want to vote for Hillary or Obama.
Or Ron Paul, revo.
I thought Paul was against immigration amnesty? I am pretty sure he is more Republican than McCain is.Did I miss something? Have you always had the 2 on the end of your moniker?
Paul is against immigration amnesty. So are a lot of dems. I'm an independent myself and I do like Ron Paul. Unfortunately, he won't get elected. And no, the 2 is rather new. Decided to clone myself - LOL!
It's surprising how many folks say they would either like Ron Paul or Obama. Even though they're miles apart. It's that regular folks are so tired of machine politics run by lobbiests and big business.