Analysis: Wamp would be easy mark for Dems in 2010

On Monday in Chattanooga, Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey made a simple declaration. It was a bold statement, not so much because it was controversial, but because it loudly proclaimed what had previously been only the quiet conventional wisdom of many political observers.

The lieutenant governor simply stated that, after surveying the current political landscape, the next governor of Tennessee likely would be a Republican.

Whether it be him, Rep. Zach Wamp, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam or Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons, Ramsey believes that the GOP primary will be the de facto general election in 2010.

Is he correct? After one makes the obligatory caveats that the election is two years out and that the Democratic field is nowhere near set, one would have to concede that, yes, Ramsey makes a reasonable assumption. But just as one can see a possible road to victory for each of the announced Republicans so too is there one for a Democrat. It is a winding, narrow road — but it is a road nonetheless.

We are a long way out from 2010 and there are plenty of unknowns. We don't know now how low this economy can go. We don't know how far Republicans can drive down their brand nationally.

Thus far the GOP's degraded national brand has not affected Republicans in Tennessee. In 2006, Bob Corker was elected to Senate despite a massive Democratic windfall nationally. Similarly, while Democrats continued their national march in 2008, Tennessee Republicans took a majority in the General Assembly. The separation between politics in Tennessee and the rest of the country is clear and established — but that does not mean that separation will continue.

Tennessee politics are Tennessee politics — a breed apart from the national zeitgeist, but the fact is we don't know how successful President Obama will be. We don't know what mistakes Republicans may make in the state Legislature and we don't know how successful a Democratic gubernatorial candidate will be at wedding the Republican candidate to the national brand. All these things have an impact.

For a Democratic victory, much depends on who emerges out of the Republican primary. Clearly, the Democratic preference must be Wamp. Not only is he easily definable as a conservative ideologue, an anathema in Tennessee statewide politics, he is also the Republican most tied into the national Republican Party.

If Wamp does emerge from a four-way primary, chances are he will be badly damaged. The primary could cause an irreparable rift between the conservative and moderate wings of the party. If Wamp wins, there is a better than even shot that the moderates would sit on their hands after a Haslam defeat and Lt. Gov. Ramsey, while certainly preferring to work with a Republican governor, might not be all that motivated to aid the man who defeated him.

The stage would then be set for a replay of 2002 with Wamp playing the role of Van Hilleary, an ideologically rigid Republican nominee with lukewarm backing from the moderate establishment. All Democrats would need do is find their Phil Bredesen.

Easier said than done, of course. But one of the two presently announced candidates could strike a similar pose.

Ward Cammack is in many ways an unknown entity. Born to a Republican family and a (very) recent convert to the party, he has a lot of Republican friends and a lot of money. He doesn't have the successful stint in elective office but with a bankroll and a message of reasonable moderation, Cammack just might be able to camp out in traditionally Republican East Tennessee, as Bredesen did, and make a race of this thing.

Of course, the calculus changes dramatically with alternative matchups. If Haslam is the GOP nominee, it would be foolish for a Democrat to try and emulate Bredesen because while Haslam is a Republican his brand of Republicanism is very moderate, pragmatic and technocratic — three adjectives that could be used to describe our current governor.

A Democrat is not going to out moderate Haslam and, in this state, you certainly can't go to his left. To beat Haslam, a Democrat would have to go "old school" and essentially get to Haslam's right on issues like guns, immigration and abortion at the same time holding to an economic populist message. While he has already taken himself out of contention, the best candidate to do this would be Rep. Lincoln Davis — or someone like him.

The smart money may indeed be on a Republican to win in 2010. But Democrats should not be written off. The needle can be threaded.

Kleinheider is NashvillePost.com's political blogger. For more from him and continuing political coverage throughout the day visit Post Politics at http://politics.nashvillepost.com.