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Is a Gore scenario emerging?
As the number of Democrat delegates available in the remaining state primaries and caucuses dwindles down, the likelihood that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will be able to secure the delegates needed to claim the nomination before the Democratic Convention in late August increases.
Numerous factors complicate the issue, but none is more divisive than the controversy over potential delegates from Michigan and Florida. The fact that those two states also loom large as swing states in the November election exacerbates the problem for Democrats.
Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates when they broke Democratic Party rules and moved up their primary elections. Hillary, who was the only candidate on the ballot in Michigan, won the states in the elections they held despite national Party opposition. Both states are now considering “do over” primaries. However, the costs of holding two new primaries would almost certainly have to be covered by the Democrats, who would prefer to spend those millions of dollars defeating John McCain.
Without Michigan and Florida, Clinton and Obama need 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. With those states back in play, either candidate would need 2,209. At this point, Obama leads Clinton by approximately 1,367 to 1,225 in “pledged delegates”, which are based on votes they received at primaries and caucuses.
Because the Democrats will award the remaining delegates proportionally in each state rather than on a “winner take all” basis, it appears unlikely that Clinton can overtake Obama in the races remaining. But it is also unlikely Obama can reach the magic number of 2,025. So what happens if NOBODY wins the nomination during the primary/caucus process?
There are 800 Super Delegates who could decide the issue for one or the other, but unless they overwhelming flow to one candidate in the next few weeks the nominee will not be clear until the Democratic Convention convenes in Denver. Obama, with his lead, says the Super Delegates should follow the will of the voters. Clinton says they should vote their conscience. The rules are clear: The Super Delegates — Democratic Party officials and Democrats elected to either Congress or statewide offices — are absolutely free to support the candidate of their choice. They can do whatever they want.
With the prospects of a divisive and potentially chaotic Convention looming, some Democrats are starting to think – and talk -- about other options. Pushing Obama aside in favor of Hillary would cause serious problems among the African-American base that the Democrats rely upon. But despite Obama’s rhetorical skills, many Democrats remain concerned that his lack of credentials and experience make him vulnerable to McCain. If neither candidate can lock up the delegates to claim the nomination by the time the Democrats gather in late August, some party leaders are thinking privately that Al Gore might be the only one who could bring the party back together and carry it to victory in November.
As a former member of both the House and Senate along with his eight years as Vice President, his experience is unquestioned. His military service, including a brief stint in Viet Nam, balances against John McCain’s war hero credentials. With an Academy Award and a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on environmental issues, he can tout leadership on one of the critical issues of the day. Many Democrats would see a Gore-Obama ticket as a true “dream team,” one that can not only achieve victory in November but also get Obama the experience to be President in eight years. At this point, the Gore Scenario is only being talked about in hushed whispers. But as the bloodletting between Clinton and Obama continues, don’t be surprised to hear the talk increase in volume.
Steve Gill is a statewide Tennessee radio talk host. His Web site is www.gillreport.com
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Hey Gilly why don't you stick to local politics where you are a niche player and can do us some real good.Why would he want to run and put his business practices under scruitiney? He is worth a 100 million dollars and has his own religion. Why would he take a chance on blowing that by getting beat again and become exposed as a meer mortal?
I would vote for Gore in a second, but I don't think it would happen.
Your ghostwriter take the day off again, id?
Oh Stevie, your predictions for ol Fred were so prescient, you've got to be right on target again!Thank the Founders for the First Amendment, otherwise he'd be chasing ambulances for a living.
Who cares? Let us read the letter to the editor, not this guys opinion. NCP needs to quit posting Gill, Reagan and the others for comment and let us discuss the letters to the editor.
I agree. That's what happens when the owners are big-time local Repelicans. Nashville's own version of FOXNews.
Here is the letter today (just one!)Learned his lessonI have recently been blessed with the responsibility of caring for a high school age young adult (my children graduated years ago). It continuously amazes me the things that pass for education at the high school level. I have learned that students frequently:1. Question if spelling will be counted off on a spelling test;2. Do not know the Declaration of Independence or the Bill of Rights;3. Spend a whole hour listening to the administration reading the dress code aloud over the intercom after one student has an infraction.It’s bad enough that we (taxpayers) foot the bill for teaching a third of the high school population to learn to speak and comprehend ENGLISH, but it is beyond a shame when the other two thirds of natural born students can’t spell ‘toast’ or ‘loop.’High school students should be writing 27-page papers (pick a topic) with footnotes. Spelling should have been left at the eighth-grade level. It was in 1977 when I graduated high school in Mississippi and went into the U.S. Navy. All of the Navy technical manuals (for a nuclear reactor) were written at an eighth-grade level as were the ones that I later taught Propulsion Engineering classes with. A high school classmate of mine went to MIT and another went to the Naval Academy.I do not make this illustration to toot my own horn, but rather I say it to illustrate that the state of Mississippi very adequately educated me to succeed in one of the toughest curriculums around with just a high school education. My high school did not have air conditioning (except the teacher’s lounge which the teachers had to pitch in and buy a window unit themselves). We still received corporal punishment in high school! When we did something wrong on a test it was circled in red ink so that we knew what to do right the next time.There is much talk in the media today about schools in relation to how they are run and financed. You can’t turn on the radio/TV or pick up The City Paper without directly or indirectly calling into question the management of our schools. [Pedro] Garcia was supposed to fix everything. How much did that cost us in time and money? The answer is obviously not a new superintendent.First, tenure has got to go! We have teachers that are punching the clock instead of enlivening our youth.Second, the school system has got to start thinking of parents as their customer, but ‘no,’ the customer is not always right. The political climate is moving ever closer to a school voucher system, and if we don’t fix the schools that’s what is going to happen.The [top] responsibility of the elder generation is to teach our younger generation the difference between right and wrong. Having been on both ends of the stick, I can say that the best teaching tool is a good example. Right now, I am convinced by what I see in the media and in our schools that we are failing at an ever-increasing cost. Let’s stop talking and start doing.37211Richard Reed
I don't believe teachers nowadays "just punch the clock." They babysit, counsel and sometimes parent other folks children. And that is not by choice. Parents drop the kids off, go on to work, pick them up at 6. Go home, go out on the town or get on the net... anything to avoid engaging their kids. Or they have their kids in a million activites, none of which will really make a big dif in the long run (see this weeks NY Times article regarding this!) The people bearing these children are the problem. Not so much the system.
Good letter! Yeah, they need to post the letters to the editor, not this junk.
Notwithstanding that there are some good, dedicated teachers who are in the profession for the right reason, there are all too many who loathe the profession and are only in it because they know they couldn't make as much money elsewhere.These teachers (and I do have occasion to speak to many of them) have no affection whatsoever for their students. Many of them despise their students. And the sentiment is mutual, no wonder. I think if we really want to improve our schools, the administration needs to do periodic assessments of teacher morale and decide who needs to be invited to find other work. But of course, the teachers union would have no part of that idea ever seeing the light of day. To them, having a job as a teacher is an entitlement.Some of these teachers just don't belong in a school system that truly wishes to deliver a good education.
I've been saying to anyone who would listen that Gore will jump into this race sooner or later. Now that it looks like the Democrat nominee will be uncertain (maybe up until the convention) that seem even more likely to me. I wouldn't be surprised at all.That said, Gill is a bit transparent here. What smart politician would ever take advice from the opposition?
Metro teachers are nothing compared to the nuns I grew up with.
Fundit, did those nuns whack you? LOL That explains why you're "grounded" and not wearing prison stripes... What the nuns have on the rest of the system is that they hold kids accountable for their actions or even inactions. We don't tell kids they're "wrong" or less deserved than the "winner" of a contest anymore. We reward all participants, thereby giving even mediocrity great value these days. Case in point, the YMCA soccer league. My son asked why in the world would they give him a trophy when their team was so pitiful on the field. He's only 10 yet he has grasped the reward system better than some adults we know. And as for red-ink corrections on papers, you'll see that at Andrew Jackson Elementary. LOL I've got a few in my car right now. :-(
Thanks fundit, that was better then gills crap.
I remember moving from Davidson County to Rutherford when I was in 4th grade. It took me several months to catch up. They were far ahead of Davidson.
Bet its more now.
Global_citizen insert “customer” for “student” and “Teacher” for employee, you will gain an understanding as to the full magnitude of this issue. It is not exclusive to government-sponsored schools. As one who travels extensively, it is my experience that in modern America if an employee does not screw-up, he/she feels as if he/she performed in an exemplary fashion.
Fundit, which Nun’s Monastery did you grow up.
Hey Plant, where have you been????? We were guessing you were in Columbia.... ;-)
That is one of the best letters I've ever read. Schools today aren't what they use to be or need to be.
Gore is not gonna take the VP position. He has been there and done that. He is out doing other things, and is not going to take a step back to play second fiddle. Put that topic to bed Gil and find something important to talk about, like how the economy, and hence our country, is gonna survive $4+ a gallon gas.
What's so amazing about the abour $4 gas is.... most people only think about their cars... not that oil drives EVERYTHING they do from clothes, food, energy supplies, make-up, drugs, you name it. Heck, nearly everything we touch in our kitchen alone was made w/an oil product. I got a note last night from friends in Oklahoma saying they don't have enough field workers out there now. The boom is back on, and it's so out of control that rent has doubled and even tripled. The work-over rigs are looking for guys as well. Back in the late 70's those positions were paying over $45k a year, so now they're more than twice that pay. And Exxon bought most of the mineral rights just west of OKC, so the predictions are that ppg of gas could even spike above $5 if you're listening to those guys. And, that's not including any bad weather events that might affect the platforms, refineries, or heaven knows the corn industry in the case of Ethanol. Lovely, isn't it?
It's going to drive costs up as well. Companies that depend upon trucks to deliver goods are going to have to pay more for fuel, etc etc.This is a disaster waiting to happen.
It is not waiting, it is happening now. Shipping cost haveincreased, either directly or indirectly in the price of goods going up. It is here, we are in deep “she-it”.
I believe the market is deciding to enter a recession.
According to Wall Street, the recession has already started, too. Today the bulk buys were almost in a frenzy. Don't know about you, but I've never gotten over the collapse of 2001, so I'm opting to be a spectator from now on. I can't decide what's more titilating right now: Obama's preacher's rantings being played on the radio/tv or the stock market guys~ geesh
Well he is the anti-Christ so, according to texts, he should win the election, bring us out of recession and into a time of prosperity, end all wars and establish a one-world government.Then all Hell breaks loose....literatlly. lol
careful, gdiafante. you're going to confuse gg.
That's a lot to ask from someone as inexperienced as Obama.
I'm sorry, I was just swooning for 'ya Gdia...
Frankly, if you listen to Geraldine's speech, Obama should've jumped her for being sexist... which all women, myself included, are... duh.. but he totally missed that part of her statement. Geraldine's one tough cookie, and I'm sorry she felt that she needed to remove herself from the field of players.
And he's only 1/2 black.... are you telling me that he's the ONLY black man qualified for the job? Really? J.C. Watts is probably more qualified but no one even mentions the guy. Oh well, not my problem.... right?
One more problem as of today's news... 1 in 4 teens is infected with an STD. And black girls have a higher number; 50% infection rate, but schools aren't allowed to teach abstinence because it isn't secular enough. And the doctors on Fox said that the HPV also causes head and neck cancer, but NO ONE is talking about preventing the exposure AT ALL right now. All they mention is the new vaccine, which only prevents 40% of the viruses in the HPV category. Even our doctor is pushing for our baby girl to get the Gardicil, but it won't prevent her from getting ALL of the HPV strains.... Abstinence seems to be the answer for the day. And morality wouldn't hurt either. Too bad Spitzer didn't practice that part of the lecture.
states with sex education programs have less teens with std's than the Bible Belt states.
But those same programs talk about the pill and other methods, which I can assure you have NOTHING to do w/oral transfer of HPV (which causes cancer) so....?
Abstinence only is not the answer.
If you want to keep your little girl alive, it may very well be. And don't forget, those little kids aren't just having relations with other kids, they're probably being exposed to the likes of Gov Spitzer and his ilk.
Hey Blanket, they have toys out there to keep girls happy and they're not expensive either.
So, you would rather keep you child ignorant and give her sex toys? Education is key. TEACH kids about sex and the emotional and physical risks involved. Keeping them dumb doesn't accomplish anything. That's why abstinence only doesn't work.
Keeping them out of the back seat of cars is primo uno~ LOL Man, am I having a trip down Memory Lane right now.
well, that explains a lot.
LOL on a more serious note, did you catch Rush at all today...while you were surfing? He had a call-in black woman, Dem, former supporter of the Clintons, delegate but not Super Delegate, and asked quite pointedly, "If Obama doesn't get the win at the convention, what are you then going to do?" She avoided it for a while, then said after the rioting died down at the convention, blacks would resign themselves not to vote, but if they did, maybe McCain (if he says the right things).... The rioting part caught my attention. You know, I could understand that reaction, given all that's transpired lately.
From which nun's monastery? Oh, I know, you're being a know-it-all again. I'm am well aware that nuns are cloistered. Excuse me, I was taught by SISTERS. No doubt you were not, plant. In fact, I think you were hatched.
Rush? Man Girlie, you are a rightie. I knew it! If Obama doesn't get the nomination, his supporters will vote for Nader...anyone but another war monger. Especially not a hot-head old fart like McCain... Geez Louise.
This particular woman (delegate) seemed to differ with your opinion. And since I'm not a delegate, I have no clue how this thing is going to turn out. I'm hoping the delegates have more insight than the rest of us. And... I'm only a rightie when it comes to issues that affect my babies directly. When I just had one child, I didn't seem to be as sensitive to all the scary stuff going on in our society. But it's hard to keep track of 5 at a time, so a mom has to trust and rely on her surroundings/neighbors/friends whatever to keep her kids safe. This stuff keeps me up at night..... yes, I know, Ambien is addictive. lol
girlie, how naive are you? The problem with abstinence-only education is that every soccer mom in America thinks her little angel is pure and virginal while it's other girls who are out there having sex. Guess what, kids have sex (even those from conservative, Christian homes).Those who would deliberately withhold protecting their kids from a very preventable disease based on the naive hope that their kids don't need it are contemptible.
Nader's not running...he's even older than McCain! He'll probably pass on before the election anway. Mr. Charismatic is taking on the Clinton Empire! Remember Hillary's friend, found dead at the park, declared it by "natural causes".... but the blood had to have flowed UPHILL????? I loved them too, but dang, we're talking about people who've never given up on anything or anyone, and they've survived all kinds of really nasty publicized stuff. You think they're going to let Obama walk away with the Grand Prize?! (not me)
I'm not saying you CAN prevent this stuff... YOU CAN'T... get a copy of the AMJ and check for yourself. There's no cure, no medical prevention, and no method to prevent 100% of the strains of HPV right now. Seriously, cervical cancer is killing women right now, and head and neck cancer is going after the male population. Know how the guys got it????? Remember Monica Lewinsky? Or maybe you don't think that's sex either.... hmmm.... it's the most popular form in kids that age. I've raised 2 so far, and their friends talk! You think getting a guy to wear a condom is difficult now, just wait until you ask a teenage girl to wear one during oral sex. It's like herding cats. Swear.... my sister was just like that.... :-(
I'm not pushing abstinence-only programs, but it would be nice to have them readily available for the mere fact it might save lives and protect fertility possibilities in these future women.... 40% is just not enough, and it certainly won't stop HIV/Aids either. Don't we all want our girls to grow up and be happy? What are you going to do otherwise? Have every boy who shows up at your door give a blood sample first, then wait weeks for the results, then if he's clean, ok..."you can date my daughter" LOL (ok, now I have to go pee) LOL again.
Hey Global... I used to tell my boys when they were only 13 and 15 you could catch "penis-rot" from having sex before you're 20..and I said they could look it up on the CDC website, but I already knew they didn't have the ability to research the topic, so I trumped them...and they told their friends, who later told others... By the time it got back to me, our pediatrician and internist thought I was "creative" and on track when it came to boys. That organ is the only one of interest to boys in that age category. All other body organs are negotiable. It worked for almost 4 years. ;-) And then we got Comcast.... dang it.