On politics: 2010 scary for state Dems

Though it seems like just yesterday that Gov. Phil Bredesen rolled up the hapless Jim Bryson in a drubbing similar to the New England Patriots playing Vandy in a friendly scrimmage, Bredesen is in the last two years of his last term in the governor’s seat.

That is bad news for a Tennessee Democratic Party with a remarkably weak bench looking toward the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Former governor Ned McWherter created the cardinal rule of politics in Tennessee when he said anyone serious about running for statewide office needed to start two years out from the Election Day in question. McWherter laid down that maxim over two decades ago, and it is still good advice. Thus far, leading Tennessee Democrats appear to be ready to sit out 2010 if McWherter’s law still holds true.

The real problem for Tennessee Democrats is the overall good fortune of their party nationally in the waning years of an unpopular Republican president. None of the state’s politically consequential Democratic Congressmen are ready to come home from Washington, D.C. after paying their dues for so many years.

Sixth District Congressman Bart Gordon is easily the most organized, efficient politician in the state. Likely the state party’s best fundraiser, after two decades in Congress Gordon has built a political machine that never really goes dark during off years. He raises money even though he has not had a serious opponent since Steve Gill in 1996, and it is said his staff knows how many votes he will get in every precinct box before election day even arrives.

Gordon, however, is now one of the senior Democrats in the House and is enjoying the fruits of being in the majority and leadership after waiting over a decade for Democrats to win it back.

A close second to Gordon in terms of being a potentially attractive statewide candidate among current Democratic officeholders is West Tennessee’s Rep. John Tanner in the 8th Congressional District.

Tanner is one of the founders of the House’s Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative House Democrats that banded together in the wake of the Democrats’ 1994 drubbing nationally by the GOP. This group has turned into a force in the House, and, like Gordon, Tanner hung on through the tough years in the minority. He is presently enjoying the spoils of winning the majority.

Another current officeholder that is a bright light for the party is Shelby County Mayor A.C. Wharton Jr. Wharton, a native of Middle Tennessee, has been courted for years for higher office by Democratic Party movers and shakers but to no avail.

Wharton, a former public defender, is universally respected in the state’s legal circles, an important connection when jumping to higher office as Nashville Mayor Karl Dean can attest. Wharton has also stayed out of the constant political messiness that is Memphis politics, a maelstrom that largely swirls around his city counterpart Mayor Willie Herenton. Regardless, Wharton seems uninterested in a statewide run.

There is one Congressman who might want to come home to be governor, 4th District Rep. Lincoln Davis. However, Davis has several limitations.

First, he is going to have to wait around for Ford to make up his mind. Ford would likely clear the field, and Davis can't take advantage of connections from his own role chairing Ford's 2006 Senate campaign unless Ford is out.

Secondly, like another 4th District Congressman from yesteryear, Davis may not translate well with urban voters. Former 4th District Congressman Van Hilleary could not connect with more astute suburban voters in 2002 and lost a lot of Republican votes to Bredesen. Davis may have the same problem only in a more extreme way as Democrats have to run up the score in Shelby and Davidson Counties to win statewide.

That leaves many folks outside of elected office, with former Congressman Harold Ford Jr. at the top of the list. Ford and his advisors continue to publicly flirt with the idea of getting into the governor’s race, but he would need to do so soon according to McWherter’s maxim. Ford shows no visible signs of preparing for a statewide campaign. If he starts showing up at events between July 4th and the fall county fair season in rural towns — something he has done before when considering joining a race — it might happen.

That leaves former Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell and former State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan as the possible saviors of the party in 2010. Both would have a very difficult time raising the funds needed to compete in a statewide race.

Purcell spent the last three years of his second term in City Hall essentially ticking off the city’s business community — not a recipe for success when looking toward a future career in politics. If the business community in Nashville would not pony up for a Purcell run it is likely the rest of the state’s big donors would not either.

As for McMillan, she does know state government well, enough to make an initial fundraising showing. With only a stint as the former State House majority leader under her belt and from a small market like Clarksville, it is doubtful she can be competitive enough to face down a Republican like Bill Frist, Rep. Marsha Blackburn or Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam — all GOP possibles for the governor’s race that can either self-fund or raise money nationally.

The Tennessee Democratic Party has a long road ahead looking toward 2010. Party leaders should heed the words of their elder and pick a horse to ride now for good or bad.

(Editor's Note: Hat tip to blogger Sean Braisted who reminded me I left Davis out of my original analysis. This online version differs in that respect from today's print edition. - CB)