On politics: Frist, GOP may have last laugh in 2010

Former Senate Majority leader Dr. Bill Frist is the topic of much discussion behind the scenes of Tennessee politics lately. With the 2010 governor’s race looming, Frist is mentioned repeatedly as the presumptive Republican Party nominee — and a tough out for Democrats — should he choose to run.

The notion draws scorn from many Democrats in the state, particularly more liberal elements of the party in Nashville. The thinking is that Frist is damaged goods from his days in the Senate, left un-electable from gaffes like his video diagnosis of Terri Schiavo and the blame resting partially with Frist for the GOP losing the Senate in 2006.

Yet, Democratic Party insiders actually charged with running candidates against Republicans in Tennessee said Frist is going to be much more of a problem to dispatch than rank-and-file Democrats realize.

Numbers are already floating around Nashville concerning a possible Frist bid. Democratic operatives say the talk from the other side is that Frist’s fundraising goal would be $15 million followed by another $10 million in his own personal wealth if needed.

Those figures appear to be coming in part from noted GOP strategist and campaign manager Chip Saltsman, former chair of the GOP in Tennessee. Saltsman, fresh off his lead role in the surprisingly strong GOP presidential primary candidacy of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, didn’t dispel the idea he was talking up a Frist bid in town when asked. Saltsman was neck-deep in preparing for Frist’s aborted presidential bid before going to run Huckabee’s campaign.

“I’ve made no secret of the fact that I think this is a good idea,” Saltsman said of a Frist gubernatorial bid. “Dr. Frist needs to make up his mind about what he wants to do.”

Should Frist actually bring $25 million to the table for the 2010 gubernatorial race, it would be an unprecedented amount for a campaign in Tennessee. Democratic operatives from several sectors of the party suggest Frist’s people may not only be trying to scare off the field with such talk — though that is one goal. Democratic campaign types said they fully expect Frist’s reach into Nashville to be a problem for the Democratic Party in 2010.

Typically one of the state’s blue county, Democratic strongholds, there is a school of thought that many wealthy Nashville Democrats would have a hard time saying “no” to Frist and his family — one of the city’s oldest, most powerful business families still involved at the helm of the HCA hospital company. The thought process is that there will be a number of high-end Democratic donors in the city that would end up giving to both sides should Frist get in the race.

Democratic Party insiders have other numbers that make them feel pretty good about a Frist bid. At least one potential Democratic gubernatorial candidate has done some polling, and early numbers suggest Frist’s negatives among Tennesseans may be as high as the high 30 percent range. That could be balanced by what Saltsman and other GOP operatives say is a very high name recognition in the state.

A Frist run at public office in Tennessee has Nashville Democrats laughing. Some of the people charged with winning campaigns on their behalf do not seem to get the joke.