On Politics: Three ‘blind’ mice, see how they run …for governor

Three prominent Republicans are zipping back and forth across Tennessee’s nearly 600-mile horizontal expanse. They are already elected public servants — men with busy schedules and a lot of responsibility to the state’s taxpayers.

They are taking time off from those responsibilities because they want to be Tennessee’s next governor. Why anyone in politics would want the job is amazing in and of itself given the state’s financial crisis, but 3rd District Congressman Zach Wamp, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam and Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons are all hitting the trail hard, each in their own way.

The most obvious observation is that all of these gentlemen’s nascent campaigns are really only campaigns in waiting, and they are waiting on former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist to make up his mind about running for governor. Frist says that will happen some time early next year, and presently both Gibbons and Wamp have made their campaigns conditional based on whether or not Frist gets in. If he is in, they are out.

More interesting are what the early bids of these three politicians may mean to the state’s political landscape and whose actions suggest they want the job the most.

Wamp may be leading the pack when it comes to a demonstrated desire to run for governor. Wamp has sidled up to statewide bids several times in his career only to back away and defer to another Republican. His out-of-district schedule — maintained for years — and recently his massive, interstate campaign billboards on the edges of his district have not escaped the notice of potential rivals or the state’s reporters.

This month, Wamp made an impromptu confession at a Knoxville speech suggesting he is terribly interested in running statewide. He openly discussed a long-ago cocaine problem during his college days at the University of Tennessee.

The facts of this disclosure have been one of the worst kept secrets in GOP insider circles for the better part of the last decade. Wamp apparently decided to preemptively address it in an effort to take it away from any potential primary opponents.

GOP sources say the seriousness of the disclosure got the attention of the Frist camp, who are feeling somewhat pressed by the sitting Congressman from Chattanooga who is clearly serious about being a candidate while Frist continues to mull it over.

On the other end of the spectrum is the understated Gibbons, criss-crossing the state and even requesting audiences with Tennessee’s political writers to set forth what amounts to a law and order campaign platform. Gibbons’ answer to making Tennessee safer is better public education, “truth in sentencing” in the judicial system and a better economy. What Gibbons cannot explain — nor can anyone else — is how to get these things in a terrible economy amid draconian state cutbacks.

Somewhere in the middle is Haslam, a member of the wealthy Pilot Oil family and seemingly with all of the personal financial resources Frist might have to wage a statewide race. There are some differences.

Unlike Frist, Haslam is not a game changer politically. Certainly, Frist’s ability to put what some GOP sources say may be as much as $15 million into a gubernatorial race is a factor in making him someone who will clear the field of both GOP and Democrat rivals.

However, GOP sources are also talking about what internal Republican Party polling is showing — that Frist has a name recognition level in the high 70s with an approval rating in Tennessee somewhere in the low 70s. The combination of Frist’s wealth and apparent appeal in the state are what make him a game changer, whereas Haslam has only the wealth and none of the statewide political brand. A Haslam bid would draw not only Democrats but also possibly more than one primary opponent.

Haslam seems to know this, and is presently testing the waters with small groups of social peers and party activists. Publicly, Haslam is saying it is quite early to be discussing the governor’s race though he is crisscrossing the state doing just that.

Should Frist decide not to run, the early prize for GOP gubernatorial hopefuls will be the fundraising base of the party — largely moderate, business-minded Republicans dominated by the party’s east Tennessee wing. That is a quiet battle Wamp and Haslam would have, and it remains to be seen where Gibbons fits into that picture.

Still, heading into 2009, the governor’s race is still Frist’s to take or leave despite all of the preemptive campaigning by his peers.

Contact Executive Editor Clint Brewer at editor@nashvillecitypaper.com